The consequences of error ignored
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On October 3, 2003, Charles T. Munger, the largest shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett then gave the grass Kay lecture undergraduate Faculty of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara, after which I have no doubt I was deeply encouraged. Unfortunately, the lessons it teaches is not a single impression in the mind participants.
Despite the fact many highlights, noted that economists pay little attention to the effects of second order and more. He said that "this defect is quite understandable, because the consequences have consequences, and consequences of consequences have consequences, and so on. It becomes very complicated. When I was a meteorologist found these things very irritating. And time the economy makes it look like a tea party. "I call this practice of ignoring the consequences highest level of falsity consequences ignored.
It is well known, of course, if one can select data to be considered, almost nothing can be proved, because the ability to select the data are removed from a mere inch of data. This error is similar the known statistical fallacy called confusion, because although there is a positive correlation can often be between two things, you never know if the correlation is not an accidental result another correlation is not taken into account in the selected data.
All the economists who advocate free trade globalization make this fallacy, because the data are regarded as the prices of imported products. Here An example: Dr. Steven J. Balassa, Professor of Economics (MBA and undergraduate) for various Bay Area institutions, wrote in a commentary that "depends From this point of view you take. If you take the U.S. perspective, jobs are outwardly good and bad. They are bad for those who lose their jobs, but good for the price of the product. If you take a global perspective, trade is good. If a lost job in the U.S., but two wins in India, which is good for humanity. Is it still good in terms of product price. "Ignoring the syntax of the poor in this opinion, stating that Dr. Balassi was not himself a student superlative including their mother tongue, I would say that the economic outlook is still too narrow.
The product price has meaning only in relation other things, for example, income consumers. But considering that the price of totally ignores the other costs of international trade, which if is added to the price of products that make the supposed benefits of the absurd.
For example, the BBC reported that hundreds of thousands dangerous chargers imported from China for mobile phones, game consoles and music devices could have their way in the United Kingdom. Some of these chargers carry a CE safety officials believe to be false. The chargers sold for about £ 5 on the internet and about £ 6 in shops. Chargers security, which have been successfully verified, retail for about £ 15. Concerns were expressed about safety chargers 18 months ago after the death of a child of seven years, Colombia has been found dead after using your games console charger. The trading standards officers are trying to recall the chargers. Shippers are also able to download their owners, overheat, explode, and cause a fire.
If the costs of cleaning up damage caused by the recall and disposal, treatment of those injured, and indemnify families of the death of their children caused by these products were added to the £ 5 price, what the real cost of these imports? But this is one small example.
The Black Death was carried east and west along the Silk Road by merchants. The introduction of smallpox in the Americas by Europeans wiped out all the Native American civilizations before they are ever seen by Europeans. Imported products were not worth the lives of millions of deaths?
Chestnut blight, which has decimated the American chestnut was caused by a fungus introduced on imports of Japanese chestnut. The fungus virtually eliminated American Chestnut from more than 180 million acres of forests in the United States and Eastern States has been a disaster for many animals that were very well suited for live in forests dominated by this species of tree. For example, ten species of butterflies that could not live brown went out. The Asian clam is North America came from China. The mussels clog condenser tubes, pipes premium services and fight against the fire and reduces the effectiveness of energy production, now a big problem. Cuban tree frogs are believed to have been introduced in Florida charged from Cuba. These frogs are attracted by the hum of electrical transformers and often short-circuiting of the transformer causing brownouts. the Dutch elm disease has severely damaged the American elm. starlings, geese, otters and showed the characteristics of flooding long after its original introduction. Australian Melaleuca tree has replaced native plants such as sedges, more 400,000 hectares of South Florida. Because it is a combination of leaf and bark waste to the outside and fluffy flammable increasing fire frequency and intensity. Many birds and mammals adapted to the native plant community declined in abundance as paperbark spread. Aquatic plants like water hyacinth from South America, Texas and Louisiana and algae as taxifolia in Australia Mediterranean Sea large tracts of habitat modification by replacing formerly dominant native plants. The parasite that causes whirling disease in European fish, rainbow trout introduced into a hatchery in Pennsylvania, has spread to many states and devastated the fishing trout rainbow sport in Montana and Colorado. The brown tree snake predator, introduced into the charge of the Admiralty Islands, has eliminated ten of Eleven species of native forest birds of Guam. Nile perch, a voracious predator introduced into Lake Victoria as a food fish, disappeared from a hundred species of cichlid fish native there. The zebra mussel, accidentally brought to the United States from southern Russia, transformed habitats water by filtering large quantities of water (and therefore reduce the density of planktonic organisms) and settling in dense masses over vast territories. At least thirty species of freshwater mussels are threatened with extinction by the zebra mussel. The Fish and Wildlife Service estimates a potential economic impact of 5 billion Great Lakes attributed to the effects of zebra mussels and attempts to mitigate these impacts. Zebra mussels have virtually eliminated native mussels in the Great Lakes and the alteration of the basic food chain, threatening the availability of microscopic food for native fish. The sea lamprey reached the Great Lakes through a series of canals and, combined with overfishing, led to the extinction of three species of fish endemic. The first sailors to land in the remote island of St Helena Atlantic in the 16th century introduced goats, which quickly extinguished more than half the species of endemic plants. North American gray squirrels are driving the native red squirrels to extinction Britain and Italy to supply the nuts more effective than native species. The Hawaiian duck is lost to hybridization with mallards introduced in North America for hunting. The rare European duck (white-headed duck) is threatened by hybridization with the North redhead duck American, which was initially held as a service on a British playground. The ruddy duck escaped, crossed the English Channel and spread to Spain, the last bastion of white-headed duck. Ornamental fig trees, planted in the Miami area for more a century, and they were sterile, requires a particular wasp for pollination and the wasps were absent. Fifteen years ago, wasps pollinators of three species of fig tree came and now these fig species breed. At least one has become pervasive, with plants and trees that are several miles from any fig trees planted. More cases of this phenomenon, called "invasion crisis" is likely to emerge as more species are introduced and have the opportunity to interact with each other. And that, believe it or not, is a short list.
About 68% of species of fish lost in North America during the last century were caused by invasion of exotic species. and also caused the economy to suffer from clogged drains and municipal and industrial water displacement or elimination of important commercial species and fisheries. The Public health is also a negative impact. For example, in a number of coastal sites in the United States, strains Cholera swept through the ballast water of certain commercial vessels contaminated oysters and large populations of fish, making them unfit for consumption. Without the disease and predators in their country of origin against the spread of these species may be epic in proportion and control efforts can cost billions of dollars. Alien species can have many negative impacts on the environment, economy and human health. When species are introduced into an area, can cause increased predation and competition disease, habitat destruction, genetic exchange and extinction, same. Of the 26 species that have disappeared since listed Minutes of endangered species, at least three were wholly or partially lost due to hybridization with the invaders. One was a fish native to Texas, eliminated by hybridization with introduced mosquito fish. rainbow trout, introduced widely in the United States and fishing States are hybridized with five species in the Endangered Species Act extinction, such as trout and Gila trout Apache.
Nearly half of the species native to the United States is in danger Invasive species extinction. The statistics are alarming and should pay more attention to the problem and find a solution before the cost is that we can bear. Compared to other threats to biodiversity, invasive species are introduced after the destruction of habitat, such as logging. Of all the 1,880 endangered species in the United States, 49% are endangered because of introduced species not exotic or their combined effects with other forces. In fact, introduced species are a major threat to native biodiversity from pollution, harvesting, and disease combined. In addition, through damage to agriculture, forestry, fishing and other human endeavors, introduced species cause enormous economic costs estimated at $ 137 million to the U.S. economy alone.
Nobody would argue, of course, that international trade be abandoned, but any attempt to justify the increase, and is based solely on nominal price is a logical absurdity, since all these attempts are based on a single result, primary. When costs consequences neighbors secondary, tertiary and quaternary are added to the nominal prices of imports, the economic benefits of international trade are not as beneficial.
Of course, our economists to stick to the so-called liberals and neo-liberal ideology will not be those additional effects into account. To do so would only complicate the calculations beyond their limited intellectual capacities and nail shut the coffin of his ideology religious attire. Humanity must now be very aware of how difficult it is to find someone to leave their religion. Muslim hordes, a When trying to convert Christians to Islam with the command to convert or die. Maybe our economists are faced with a similar choice, but should be, convert or we all die.
© 2008 John Kozy About the Author
Retired professor of philosophy and logic who blogs on social, political, and economic issues at http://johnkozy.mindsay.com and http://www.jkozy.com/. Tries to avoid mere opinion and propaganda and emphasizes logic, facts, and evidence. All or any part of his articles can be cited or distributed when properly attributed.
Fly Fishing San Juan River Jim P Feb 2010
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